NFL Prophet
NFL Prophet About >> Weekly Predictions >> Playoff Odds >> Fantasy Projections >> Previous Matchups

Jalen Tolbert

Pos: PR2, KR3, WR4 Team: DAL YoE: 4
Draft: RD 3, PICK 88
Injury Status: H



I. Player News & Analysis


ESPN

RotoWire

Trends


"Tolbert is back in Dallas for his fourth NFL season. A situational player during his first two campaigns, Tolbert played 76% of Dallas' offensive snaps in 2025. That didn't translate to much usage, however, as he averaged just 4.6 targets per game. Tolbert scored seven TDs, but ranked outside the top 50 receivers in targets, catches, yards and fantasy PPG. The 26-year-old will play a lesser role in 2025 after Dallas added George Pickens as the team's No. 2 receiver behind superstar CeeDee Lamb. Even with a healthy Dak Prescott, Tolbert is a poor bet to come close to weekly flex production."


"While the fourth-year wideout saw a 91 percent snap share on offense, that didn't translate into any kind of meaningful pass volume for a second straight contest, as Ryan Flournoy (9-144-0 in 15 targets in those two games) has clearly surpassed Tolbert as a trusted target for Dak Prescott. Tolbert's role figures to shrink further once CeeDee Lamb (ankle) and KaVontae Turpin (foot) return, and it wouldn't be a shock if he got bumped from the regular game-day roster completely at that point."

Jalen Tolbert's receiving yards have decreased by 31.76% over the past 8 weeks.

Jalen Tolbert's target share has decreased by 19.96% over the past 10 weeks.

Jalen Tolbert's total points have decreased by 75.0+% over the past 8 weeks.

Jalen Tolbert's receiving touchdowns have decreased by 66.67% over the past 14 weeks.

Jalen Tolbert's targets have increased by 25.0% over the past 12 weeks.


II. Historical Performance



Season

Week

Home

Score

Away

PASS%

RUSH%

FPTS

2025

6

DAL

27 - 30

CAR

0.642

0.358

1.8

2025

5

DAL

37 - 22

NYJ

0.5

0.5

0.0

2025

4

GB

40 - 40

DAL

0.606

0.394

10.1

2025

3

DAL

14 - 31

CHI

0.692

0.308

5.4

2025

2

NYG

37 - 40

DAL

0.65

0.35

3.6

2025

1

DAL

20 - 24

PHI

0.607

0.393

1.0

2024

18

WSH

23 - 19

DAL

0.466

0.534

13.8

2024

17

DAL

7 - 41

PHI

0.492

0.508

12.0

2024

16

TB

24 - 26

DAL

0.636

0.364

10.0

2024

15

DAL

30 - 14

CAR

0.42

0.58

8.1

2024

14

CIN

27 - 20

DAL

0.554

0.446

0.0

2024

13

NYG

20 - 27

DAL

0.529

0.471

6.1

2024

12

DAL

34 - 26

WSH

0.533

0.467

10.2

2024

11

HOU

34 - 10

DAL

0.757

0.243

4.1

2024

10

PHI

34 - 6

DAL

0.547

0.453

4.4

2024

9

DAL

21 - 27

ATL

0.704

0.296

10.9

2024

8

DAL

24 - 30

SF

0.667

0.333

7.4

2024

6

DET

47 - 9

DAL

0.721

0.279

8.3

2024

5

DAL

20 - 17

PIT

0.575

0.425

21.7

2024

4

DAL

20 - 15

NYG

0.54

0.46

5.4

2024

3

BAL

28 - 25

DAL

0.761

0.239

13.2

2024

2

NO

44 - 19

DAL

0.667

0.333

14.2

2024

1

DAL

33 - 17

CLE

0.561

0.439

2.2

2023

18

DAL

38 - 10

WSH

0.58

0.42

8.8

2023

17

DET

19 - 20

DAL

0.644

0.356

1.9

2023

16

DAL

20 - 22

MIA

0.561

0.439

7.1

2023

15

DAL

10 - 31

BUF

0.63

0.37

0.0

2023

14

PHI

13 - 33

DAL

0.549

0.451

0.0

2023

13

SEA

35 - 41

DAL

0.547

0.453

2.7

2023

12

WSH

10 - 45

DAL

0.64

0.36

6.9

2023

11

DAL

33 - 10

CAR

0.603

0.397

3.2

2023

10

NYG

17 - 49

DAL

0.571

0.429

2.2

2023

9

DAL

23 - 28

PHI

0.677

0.323

13.9

2023

8

LAR

20 - 43

DAL

0.567

0.433

0.0

2023

6

DAL

20 - 17

LAC

0.536

0.464

-2.0

2023

5

DAL

10 - 42

SF

0.578

0.422

0.0

2023

4

NE

3 - 38

DAL

0.545

0.455

9.3

2023

3

DAL

16 - 28

ARI

0.548

0.452

0.0

2023

2

NYJ

10 - 30

DAL

0.463

0.537

4.8

2023

1

DAL

40 - 0

NYG

0.455

0.545

0.0

2022

13

IND

19 - 54

DAL

0.469

0.531

0.0

2022

12

NYG

20 - 28

DAL

0.435

0.565

0.0

2022

11

DAL

40 - 3

MIN

0.429

0.571

1.8

2022

10

DAL

28 - 31

GB

0.597

0.403

0.0

2022

8

CHI

29 - 49

DAL

0.482

0.518

0.0

2022

7

DET

6 - 24

DAL

0.439

0.561

0.0

2022

6

DAL

17 - 26

PHI

0.594

0.406

0.0

2022

3

DAL

23 - 16

NYG

0.508

0.492

1.4

undefined

Pos: TE-1 Team: undefined YoE: undefined
Draft: RD undefined, PICK undefined
Injury Status: undefined Return Date: undefined



I. Player News & Analysis


ESPN

RotoWire

Trends


"Kincaid failed to clear 13.1 fantasy points in a single game last season, which is pretty hard to believe when you consider he handled a 20.3% target share (5.8 per game) in a Josh Allen-led offense that averaged 3.6 touchdowns per game (the highest ever by an Allen offense). Kincaid got seven-plus targets in six of 13 regular-season games, but never cleared 53 yards in a single outing and found the end zone only twice. He finished 15th at tight end in targets despite four missed games, but was 26th in catches and 28th in yards thanks to an ugly 59% catch rate and 6.0 YPT. Kincaid's pedigree (2023 first-rounder), heavy usage and the strong Buffalo offense provide hope for a Year 3 leap, but he's risky after such an underwhelming 2024. Consider him a fringe TE1."


"Buffalo's offense looked out of sync for much of the game, but Kincaid was a bright spot. He recorded the first 100-yard receiving performance of his career in both regular-season and postseason contests, powered by a very efficient effort on six targets. Kincaid caught three passes of at least 20 yards, matching his total from the first four games of the season. Kincaid has also earned exactly six targets in three of his last four games, making him reliably involved in one of the most efficient offenses in the league."

Dalton Kincaid's target share has increased by 32.08% over the past 6 weeks.

Dalton Kincaid's receiving yards have increased by 50.57% over the past 6 weeks.

Dalton Kincaid's targets have decreased by 44.44% over the past 10 weeks.

Dalton Kincaid's receiving touchdowns have increased by 200.0% over the past 10 weeks.

Dalton Kincaid's total points have increased by 200.0% over the past 10 weeks.


II. Historical Performance



Season

Week

Home

Score

Away

PASS%

RUSH%

FPTS

2025

5

NE

23 - 20

BUF

0.517

0.483

16.8

2025

4

NO

19 - 31

BUF

0.407

0.593

9.8

2025

3

MIA

21 - 31

BUF

0.509

0.491

17.6

2025

2

BUF

30 - 10

NYJ

0.386

0.614

7.7

2025

1

BAL

40 - 41

BUF

0.597

0.403

14.8

2024

17

NYJ

14 - 40

BUF

0.452

0.548

4.4

2024

16

NE

21 - 24

BUF

0.509

0.491

5.5

2024

15

BUF

48 - 42

DET

0.5

0.5

9.3

2024

10

BUF

30 - 20

IND

0.544

0.456

4.4

2024

9

MIA

27 - 30

BUF

0.672

0.328

7.2

2024

8

BUF

31 - 10

SEA

0.5

0.5

13.1

2024

7

TEN

10 - 34

BUF

0.623

0.377

8.2

2024

6

BUF

23 - 20

NYJ

0.431

0.569

11.1

2024

5

BUF

20 - 23

HOU

0.517

0.483

5.4

2024

4

BUF

10 - 35

BAL

0.574

0.426

9.7

2024

3

JAX

10 - 47

BUF

0.517

0.483

13.1

2024

2

BUF

31 - 10

MIA

0.422

0.578

7.3

2024

1

ARI

28 - 34

BUF

0.411

0.589

2.1

2023

18

BUF

21 - 14

MIA

0.514

0.486

15.4

2023

17

NE

21 - 27

BUF

0.448

0.552

12.7

2023

16

BUF

24 - 22

LAC

0.412

0.588

1.7

2023

15

DAL

10 - 31

BUF

0.234

0.766

0.0

2023

14

BUF

20 - 17

KC

0.6

0.4

7.1

2023

12

BUF

34 - 37

PHI

0.56

0.44

8.8

2023

11

NYJ

6 - 32

BUF

0.457

0.543

10.6

2023

10

DEN

24 - 22

BUF

0.5

0.5

16.1

2023

9

BUF

18 - 24

CIN

0.704

0.296

16.1

2023

8

TB

18 - 24

BUF

0.606

0.394

17.5

2023

7

BUF

25 - 29

NE

0.631

0.369

15.5

2023

5

JAX

25 - 20

BUF

0.741

0.259

3.9

2023

4

MIA

20 - 48

BUF

0.463

0.537

6.7

2023

3

BUF

37 - 3

WSH

0.492

0.508

2.3

2023

2

LV

10 - 38

BUF

0.514

0.486

9.3

2023

1

BUF

16 - 22

NYJ

0.651

0.349

6.6