NFL Prophet
NFL Prophet About >> Weekly Predictions >> Playoff Odds >> Fantasy Projections >> Previous Matchups

J.J. McCarthy

Pos: QB1 Team: MIN YoE: 2
Draft: RD 1, PICK 10
Injury Status: Q Return Date: 2026-02-09



I. Player News & Analysis


ESPN

RotoWire

Trends


"McCarthy is entering his de facto rookie campaign after a knee injury cost the 2024 10th overall pick his entire first season in the pros. McCarthy is expected to start in a QB-friendly Kevin O'Connell scheme loaded with targets (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson) that helped Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins to top-12 fantasy campaigns (PPG) during each of O'Connell's three seasons in Minnesota. All three offenses were pass-heavy and scored at least 80% of their TDs through the air. A 22-year-old with no NFL experience, McCarthy is an obvious unknown, but he can add some value with his legs and is well positioned for a productive first season. He's an attractive late-round sleeper target."


"Unfortunately for McCarthy, his 10th career start came to an early end, as he attempted just one pass in the second half before informing head coach Kevin O'Connell that the small hairline fracture in his throwing hand was presenting issues with gripping the football. After having his entire 2024 rookie season wiped out by a meniscus tear in his right knee, McCarthy missed seven total games in 2025 due to a right high-ankle sprain, a concussion and then the fractured hand. When available, he showed strong scrambling ability (181 rushing yards and four TDs), but he still has a long way to go as a passer. On the season, McCarthy completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.7 yards per attempt and an 11:12 TD:INT, and he also took 27 sacks on 270 dropbacks (10 percent sack rate) while fumbling six times, losing two. The 22-year-old will tentatively head into 2026 atop Minnesota's depth chart, but Dianna Russini of The Athletic reported Sunday that the Vikings are expected to explore more established options at quarterback via trade or free agency this offseason, potentially forcing McCarthy to compete for the starting job in training camp."

J.J. McCarthy's passing yards per attempt has increased by 72.85% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's sacks have increased by 300+% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's passing touchdowns have increased by 150.0% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's total touchdowns have increased by 250.0% over the past 6 weeks.

J.J. McCarthy's total points have increased by 250.0% over the past 6 weeks.


II. Historical Performance



Season

Week

Home

Score

Away

PASS%

RUSH%

FPTS

2025

18

GB

3 - 16

MIN

0.5

0.5

7.98

2025

16

MIN

16 - 13

NYG

0.426

0.574

7.32

2025

15

MIN

34 - 26

DAL

0.462

0.538

23.5

2025

14

WSH

0 - 31

MIN

0.404

0.596

19.94

2025

12

MIN

6 - 23

GB

0.487

0.513

3.08

2025

11

CHI

19 - 17

MIN

0.593

0.407

6.0

2025

10

BAL

27 - 19

MIN

0.7

0.3

14.6

2025

9

MIN

27 - 24

DET

0.463

0.537

19.84

2025

2

ATL

22 - 6

MIN

0.525

0.475

5.3

2025

1

MIN

27 - 24

CHI

0.435

0.565

19.86